Recent workload trends indicate rapid growth in the deployment of machine learning, genomics and scientific workloads on cloud computing infrastructure. However, efficiently running these applications on shared infrastructure is challenging and we find that choosing the right hardware configuration can significantly improve performance and cost. The key to address the above challenge is having the ability to predict performance of applications under various resource configurations so that we can automatically choose the optimal configuration.

Our insight is that a number of jobs have predictable structure in terms of computation and communication. Thus we can build performance models based on the behavior of the job on small samples of data and then predict its performance on larger datasets and cluster sizes. To minimize the time and resources spent in building a model, we use optimal experiment design, a statistical technique that allows us to collect as few training points as required. We have built Ernest, a performance prediction framework for large scale analytics and our evaluation on Amazon EC2 using several workloads shows that our prediction error is low while having a training overhead of less than 5% for long-running jobs.